De beste og verste oljeprisutsiktene.


Skrevet av Julianne Geiger via Oilprice.com,

Det er bare en sikker ting når det gjelder oljeprisprognoser - prognoser vil uunngåelig vise seg å være feil.

Hvis det ikke er for høyt, er det sikkert for lavt - i alle fall er det aldri helt riktig, fordi oddsen om at en forecaster, av alle mulige tall tilgjengelig, plukket akkurat det riktige tallet er bokstavelig talt en i uendelig. Dette gjør oljeprisanalysen og prognoser om en ganske håpløs og sannsynlig takeløs jobb. Det eneste de analytikerne må se frem til er feil - i beste fall kan de se frem til å være mindre galt enn sine jevnaldrende.

Dagens volatilitet gjør selv den savveste analytikeren leery av gummi stempling noen gitt figur ...

Vi har USA / Iran debacle.

USA / Kina debacle, PDVSA debacle, og Libyen debacle.

Vi har kamper i Sudan / Sør-Sudan over hvem som har oljen og hvem som kan flytte den.

Spatting mellom Irak og kurderne, Canadas rørledningskrenkninger, lageroverskudd, oppslagskremer, for mye kapasitet, ikke nok kapasitet, underinvestering i å utvikle flere reserver, selgerens allianser, kjøpers allianser, klageprosedyrer og frasalgskrusjater, og fremdrift eller mangel på elektrisk kjøretøy .

Korn og ulike bestemmelser for biodrivstoff.

Og avrunding av denne listen er analysørprognoser, noe som også gir volatilitet, selv om det er utilsiktet.

Men denne volatiliteten, og den reduserte sannsynligheten for at noen vil kunne forutsi fremtidig oljepris, har ikke resultert i mangel på meninger om emnet. Nedenfor er noen av dagens oljeprisprognoser og metoden bak dem, helt fra safe til out-of-limb-spådommen. Noen inneholder faktiske prisforutsigelser, mens andre som kastes i god grad, inneholder generelle markedsresultater.

Lukking ved Hormuzestrømmen til katapultoljepriser til $ 250

Let’s start with the most bullish case for oil. Vladimir Rojankovski, expert at the International Financial Center in Moscow, predicts that oil prices could surge to $ 160 per fat if Iran were to disallow oil transit through the busy Strait of Hormuz—a waterway responsible for a massive share of the world’s oil. If the Strait was closed for a month or two, the analyst predicts, panic could ensue, sending prices upwards even further, to $250 per barrel, the RT reports. While the likelihood that Iran would or could make good on its threat to close off the shipping lane is slim, it would indeed—if successful—send shockwaves through the oil market, lifting prices.

Rojankovski er ikke alene i sin prognose. RT refererer til en annen analytiker - denne gangen fra TeleTrade - som også føler at olje kunne se $ 250 / fat hvis Iran skulle blokkere seg fra Strait.

Underinvestering i olje vil forårsake en super-spike

Investment Management Company Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. sees not Iran, but underinvestment in the oil industry, as the catalyst for sending crude oil prices upwards of $150. Coming out of the oil crisis a few years ago, oil companies have had to focus on shareholder returns to keep them happy—at the expense of investing further in its business, Bernstein analyst Neil Beveridge wrote in early July. The lowered reinvestment ratio fell to the lowest level in a generation, says Beveridge, according to Bloomberg. "Investorer som hadde egget på ledelsesteam for å herske i capex og returnere penger, vil beklage underinvesteringen i bransjen," skrev Beveridge. "Eventuelt mangel på forsyning vil resultere i en super spike i priser, potensielt mye større enn $ 150 en tønnsspike opplevd i 2008."

USA / Iran Drama å ta på $ 100 Oil

Forbes last week cited Athens-based shipping expert Theo Matsopoulos, who suggested that a “military accident” in the Arabian Gulf, stemming from the tensions between Iran and the United States over the sanctions, could cause the oil supply to be “seriously disrupted”. This analyst, however, has a different spin on the Iran scenario presented by Rojankovski.

"Når markedene er i kritisk punkt, er de mer sensitive, og de oversetter fakta mer voldsomt enn de ville i løpet av stabilitetsperioden. Det er ikke nødvendig for Hormuzestrømmen å være fullt blokkert, som det skjedde i Suezkanalen i 1956. Forventningen om en blokkad og potensialet for forstyrrelser kan forårsake turbulens og forme et bullish marked for råolje, sier Matsopoulos.

Forbes forutser at denne forstyrrelsen, selv sjenert av en blokkad av stredet, kunne sende olje over $ 100.

Morgan Stanley ser Supply Supply og $ 85 Oil

Morgan Stanley raised last week its price forecast for Brent crude by $7.50 per barrel to $ 85 on the back of diminishing oil supplies as the U.S. stance on Iran oil exports was tougher than many had expected, and as Libya’s and Angola’s oil production slipped. The investment bank does not think Russia and OPEC will be able to offset those market shortages.

Goldman avviser Trade War Fears

Goldman Sachs has long been bullish on oil, and even in the face of US sanctions on Iran, and the China/US trade war, Goldman is sticking by its earlier forecast, writes Nick Cunningham for oljepris. Goldman had previously pegged oil in the low $80s. More recently, Goldman doubled down on its prediction, saying that concerns about oil had been “Oversolgt”, and was expecting depleting inventories in the energy market to keep prices higher.

Safe $ 65 / $ 70 Scenario

Neither bullish nor bearish, Barclays modestly raised last week its oil price forecasts for Brent and WTI for this year and next. The U.S. benchmark is expected to average $65 a barrel in 2019, with lower oil supplies from Iran and Libya tightening the oil market further. “Due to new outages and a quicker Iran supply reduction, we see Brent and WTI prices averaging $71 per barrel and $65 per barrel next year,” said Barclays, cited by Reuters.

In near lockstep, JP Morgan raised its WTI/Brent outlook late last week as well, to nearly the same figure. For Brent crude, JP is predicting $70 for this year and next. While a seemingly moderate prediction, what with Brent trading around $75 currently, the prediction is $10 per barrel above an earlier forecast it had made. JP’s prediction was not based on any catastrophic geopolitical event. Instead, “Uncertainty around actual OPEC production increases, current budget constraints and sanction effects could mean near-term oil prices remain elevated,” JP Morgan’s equity research team said in a note cited by Reuters. Ifølge JPM vil oljeprisene bli avkortet av økninger i OPEC-produksjonskapasitet og kortvarig brønnøkonomi i USA, kombinert med hva den ser som en nedgang i etterspørselsvekst i år og neste år.

Other analysts share similar middle-of-the-road opinions that see oil within $10 of where it trades today, including BMI Research, som ser Brent på $ 75 for 2018 og $ 80 for 2019.

Russland forutsier en ny oljepriskollaps

Breaking away from the pack, the Russian Finance ministry predicts that there will be a new oil price collapse should oil prices remain above $50-60 per barrel, according to a report sett by Sputnik. Today’s oil prices, which it argues are above the long-term equilibrium levels, will cause the price collapse to repeat, the ministry warned.

Besides Russia, there aren’t many other analysts calling for a collapse, although there are market forces at work that could drag oil prices lower, such as the United States unleashing barrels from its Strategisk Petroleum Reserve and the perception that Saudi Arabia, Russia, and the United States have enough spare capacity to comfortably keep the world in oil.

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